Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers Passing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Rodgers has gone over 1 PASS TD in 1 of his last 4 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: California
Experience: 23 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.4 PASS TD · PrizePicks line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

PrizePicks payout options — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

OutAaron Rodgers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Rodgers threw for just 84 yards on 22 first-half pass attempts as the Steelers took a 10-3 deficit into the locker room. Things didn't get any better after halftime, as Rodgers lost a fumble in the fourth quarter that was scooped up by New England's defense for a touchdown and added an interception on a ball that hit rookie receiver Germie Bernard in the hands. Bernard and DK Metcalf turned 17 combined targets into just 62 yards as Pittsburgh's passing game struggled against New England's stout secondary in the absence of starting wide receiver Michael Pittman (foot). Things may not get much easier for Rodgers in Week 3 against a Bengals defense that just held Houston to six points.

Verdict

vs 1 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it

Projection vs line50neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.0 PASS TD(×1.03 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Open this line on PrizePicks→

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under · 3 push

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 1010 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under · 6 push

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 2017 games

67%over

6 over · 3 under · 8 push

Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%

Season17 games

67%over

6 over · 3 under · 8 push

Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%

Last 17 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days63%5/8Low

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 27, 2026

29thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

CIN allows 0.0 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Rodgers has gone over 1 PASS TD 1 of 4 decided times (25%) — versus 67% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 29th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.