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Pittsburgh SteelersAaron Rodgers
#8 · QB · 6' 2" · 223 lb · 18 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 18 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 23 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 208.9 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAaron Rodgers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Rodgers threw for just 84 yards on 22 first-half pass attempts as the Steelers took a 10-3 deficit into the locker room. Things didn't get any better after halftime, as Rodgers lost a fumble in the fourth quarter that was scooped up by New England's defense for a touchdown and added an interception on a ball that hit rookie receiver Germie Bernard in the hands. Bernard and DK Metcalf turned 17 combined targets into just 62 yards as Pittsburgh's passing game struggled against New England's stout secondary in the absence of starting wide receiver Michael Pittman (foot). Things may not get much easier for Rodgers in Week 3 against a Bengals defense that just held Houston to six points.
Verdict
vs 213.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency61supports it
Projection
209.0 PASS YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 203.2 · L10 206.8 · med 204.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 163.8 · ceil 247.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 213.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 |
Situational splits
Over 213.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — vs CIN
Sep 27, 2026
4thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CIN allows 284.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Aaron Rodgers has gone over 213.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (284.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 48.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.