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Detroit LionsAmon-Ra St. Brown
#14 · WR · 6' 0" · 202 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 92.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAmon-Ra St. Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Lions played from behind all night, which had a role in St. Brown seeing massive volume on his way to game-high figures in receptions, receiving yards and targets. The star wideout recorded both his scoring grabs in the second half, capping off Detroit's opening drive of the third quarter with a two-yard touchdown and then providing the final points for either side when he hauled in a 27-yard strike from Jared Goff with 1:42 remaining. St. Brown has opened the season in signature fashion with consecutive two-TD tallies, and he'll next take aim at the Jets defense on the fast track of Ford Field on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 86.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 28% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line28argues against it
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
120.6 REC YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 94.0 · L10 97.5 · med 80.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 59.8 · ceil 134.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 86.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 86.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
28thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NYJ allows 32.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone over 86.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 28th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (32.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 36.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 81.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.8% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+22.4%
Our model puts the over at 72.3% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (80.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.