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Detroit LionsAnthony Firkser
#86 · WR · 6' 2" · 241 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Harvard
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 21.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Anthony Firkser's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Leg Not Specified
Firkser signed with the Lions on Friday to compete for a spot in the tight-end room in the wake of Tyler Conklin's (knee) injury. Firkser now appears to have picked up an injury of his own, and the severity of the issue will likely determine if he can make a push to garner a spot on the team's 2026 roster.
Verdict
vs 20.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
20.1 REC YDS
L5 21.0 · L10 21.0 · med 21.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 9.6 · ceil 32.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 20.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Last matchup — @ CHI
Jan 4, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 47.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Anthony Firkser has gone over 20.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.