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Las Vegas RaidersAshton Jeanty
#2 · RB · 5' 8" · 208 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boise State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 59.6 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAshton Jeanty isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
It comes off as typical coach speak that is routinely thrown around at this stage of the offseason, but it's at least worth noting nonetheless. "It's important to have a quality second back, but the best player has got to play, and we've got to get them on the field as much as we can," Kubiak said. "I don't know the play-snap percentage, but you look at Christian McCaffrey, his play-snap percentage is high. So, those great backs, they don't want to come off the field." Only nine running backs handled more carries and played more snaps than Jeanty last season, so it'll be tough to truly put significantly more on his plate in 2026, but the hope is for far better efficiency behind an improved offensive line with better coaching and quarterback play. Currently in the mix for RB touches that don't go to Jeantyare rookie fourth-rounder Mike Washington, as well as Dylan Laube, Chris Collier and UDFA addition Roman Hemby.
Verdict
vs 76.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency6argues against it
Projection
65.4 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 68.0 · L10 53.0 · med 46.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 35.0 · ceil 75.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2016 games
19%over
3 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 7%–43%Season16 games
19%over
3 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 7%–43%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 | ||
| 76.5Current | 19% | 3/16 | |
| 19% | 3/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 |
Situational splits
Over 76.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home22%2/9Low
Away14%1/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days20%3/15Medium
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kirk Cousins out-8.3 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (10g)
56.5 RUSH YDS
10% over 76.5
With (6g)
64.8 RUSH YDS
33% over 76.5
Brock Bowers out+16.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
72.3 RUSH YDS
25% over 76.5
With (12g)
55.4 RUSH YDS
17% over 76.5
Last matchup — vs KC
Jan 4, 2026
20thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
KC allows 47.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 28 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ashton Jeanty has gone over 76.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 19% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (47.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 19%.