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Las Vegas RaidersAshton Jeanty Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Ashton Jeanty has gone over 21.5 REC YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boise State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 22.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAshton Jeanty isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jeanty was the unquestioned leader of the Raiders' ground attack once again, and although he had to scratch and claw for every yard, the second-year back helped keep the Bolts' defense honest. Jeanty also finished second in receptions and tied for the team lead in targets, underscoring how central he is to what Las Vegas does on offense. Jeanty and his teammates will be gunning for a third consecutive victory to open the season when they tangle with the equally surprising Saints on the road next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 21.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
24.2 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 28.0 · L10 28.5 · med 22.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 45.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Season16 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 21.5Current | 38% | 6/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — @ NO
Sep 27, 2026
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
NO allows 20.3 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ashton Jeanty has gone over 21.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 38% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (20.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 20.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 26.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-3.6%
Our model puts the over at 46.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (26.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.
More Ashton Jeanty research
Ashton Jeanty — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Jeanty Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Jeanty Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Jeanty Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Jeanty Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.