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Jacksonville JaguarsBhayshul Tuten
#33 · RB · 5' 9" · 209 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Virginia Tech
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 25.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBhayshul Tuten isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
As Shipley notes, the battle for backfield slotting between Tuten and Rodriguez will be one to monitor closely, but for now Shipley suggests that it looks like Tuten -- who looked sharp during Wednesday's session -- is taking the lead early on. That said, Rodriguez is being eased back into the mix after having undergone an offseason foot procedure, so the competition between the two figures to heat up once he's able to work fully. Either way, with Travis Etienne -- who recorded 260 carries in 17 regular-season games in 2025 -- no longer in the mix, Tuten's role is destined to expand in 2026, but it remains to be seen how the team's carries will be distributed come Week 1, with a committee approach featuring Tuten, Rodriguez and LeQuint Allen, to a lesser degree, a plausible outcome.
Verdict
vs 21.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line37argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
33.0 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 36.4 · L10 25.8 · med 19.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 14.0 · ceil 36.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 21.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 31% | 4/13 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jakobi Meyers out-3.2 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
23.3 RUSH YDS
67% over 21.5
With (10g)
26.5 RUSH YDS
40% over 21.5
Last matchup — vs BUF
Jan 11, 2026
7thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
BUF allows 53.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 37 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bhayshul Tuten has gone over 21.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (53.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.