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Jacksonville JaguarsBrenton Strange
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 253 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 42.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrenton Strange isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Parker Washington (12 targets) and Brian Thomas (eight) saw a combined 20 targets on Trevor Lawrence's 29 pass attempts, leaving very little opportunity for the rest of the Jaguars' pass catchers. Strange still ran 25 routes on 31 dropbacks, proving he's an every-down tight end in one of the league's premier offenses. He'll be a touchdown-dependent TE1/2 next Sunday against the Patriots.
Verdict
vs 30.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
38.6 REC YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 35.4 · L10 41.3 · med 42.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 24.2 · ceil 57.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Season13 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 30.5Current | 62% | 8/13 | |
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 |
Situational splits
Over 30.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away83%5/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days58%7/12Low
Next matchup — vs NE
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NE allows 17.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brenton Strange has gone over 30.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 25th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (17.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 21.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 30.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+15.7%
Our model puts the over at 65.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (30.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.