Jacksonville Jaguars

Brenton Strange Targets

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brenton Strange has gone over 5.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 5.3 TGT · our line

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OutBrenton Strange isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Strange's new contract with Jacksonville is reportedly worth up to $48 million, with $25 million guaranteed. The 26-year-old tight end is not only a capable pass catcher, but he's established himself as one of the league's best blocking TEs since joining the Jaguars in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Strange has spent spring practices lining up in multiple roles and seemingly building up for an expanded role in head coach Liam Coen's offense, which added a pair of rookie tight ends in the 2026 NFL Draft in Nate Boerkircher (second round) and Tanner Koziol (fifth round).

Verdict

vs 5.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency61supports it

Projection

5.2 TGT(×0.98 context)

L5 5.2 · L10 5.5 · med 5.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.2 · ceil 6.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	12/12
	92%	11/12
	75%	9/12
5.5Current	42%	5/12
	25%	3/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — TGT per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

Last matchup — vs BUF

Jan 11, 2026

32ndof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

BUF allows 2.8 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 30 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brenton Strange has gone over 5.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 32nd-most TGT of 32 teams (2.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.