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Miami DolphinsCaleb Douglas Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Caleb Douglas has gone over 3 REC in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.5 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Caleb Douglas's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Ankle Not Specified
After turning heads with a 5-94-0 receiving line on seven targets in the Dolphins' season-opening loss to the Raiders, Douglas was limited to two catches for 19 yards on three targets while playing 85 percent of the Dolphins' offensive snaps in Week 2 before the ankle injury forced him out late in the fourth quarter. The rookie third-round pick is expected to be evaluated further over the next few days before the Dolphins gain more clarity on his status heading into Sunday's matchup with the Chiefs.
Verdict
vs 3 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
3.2 REC(×0.92 context)
L5 3.5 · L10 3.5 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.6 · ceil 4.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Situational splits
Over 3 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
24thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 3.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Caleb Douglas has gone over 3 REC 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 57.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 42.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-149
-3.3% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet+125
-5.2% EV
Model vs market (over)-8.8%
Our model puts the over at 49.0% vs the market's no-vig 57.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Caleb Douglas research
Caleb Douglas — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Douglas Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Douglas Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Douglas Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.