Miami Dolphins

Caleb Douglas Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Caleb Douglas has gone over 6.5 TGT in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas Tech
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 7.0 TGT · our line

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OutCaleb Douglas isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Douglas led the Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards while finishing second in targets in his NFL regular-season debut. The rookie third-round pick tied fellow wideout Malik Washington for a team-long 30-yard catch as well, and Douglas' immediate chemistry with quarterback Malik Willis combined with Miami's overall lack of playmakers outside of De'Von Achane bodes well for the first-year receiver's prospects moving forward.

Verdict

vs 6.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency100supports it

Projection

6.4 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 7.0 · L10 7.0 · med 7.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 7.0 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
6.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — TGT per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ SF

Sep 20, 2026

3rdof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

SF allows 7.5 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Caleb Douglas has gone over 6.5 TGT 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most TGT of 32 teams (7.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.