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Chicago BearsCaleb Williams
#18 · QB · 6' 1" · 226 lb · 20 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 18 of these 20 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 237.8 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
DoubtfulDoubtfulConfirm Caleb Williams's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Hamstring Strain
While Williams appears to have avoided a significant injury after exiting in the fourth quarter of this past Sunday's 9-3 loss to the Vikings due to a right hamstring strain, Johnson is labeling the third-year signal-caller as week-to-week. The Bears will wait and see how the week unfolds before deciding on Williams' status for the matchup with the Eagles, but unless he defies expectations and practices in some capacity, he appears on track to miss the first game of his career. Tyson Bagent replaced Williams late in the loss to Minnesota and will presumably take all the reps with the first-team offense this week in anticipation of his first start since 2023.
Verdict
vs 240.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 3/100· model 43% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)47neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency61supports it
Projection
246.3 PASS YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 247.4 · L10 239.9 · med 246.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 191.6 · ceil 281.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Doubtful — likely sidelined; confirm status first.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 240.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 45% | 9/20 |
Situational splits
Over 240.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 29, 2026
27thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PHI allows 173.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Caleb Williams has gone over 240.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (173.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 55.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.