Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams Passing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Caleb Williams has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.6 PASS TD · our line

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OutCaleb Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Williams was a standout during the offseason program after he took multiple steps forward under Johnson's tutelage last season. While his completion percentage dipped from 62.5 percent as a rookie to 58.1 percent in 2025, Williams' touchdowns (27), touchdown rate (4.8 percent), adjusted yards per attempt (7.3) and yards per completion (11.9) all saw significant boosts. He was also sacked just 24 times after absorbing a league-high 68 sacks as a 2024 rookie. Williams certainly has MVP aspirations headed into his third pro season at just 24 years old.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)82supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.0 PASS TD(×1.10 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 1.8 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

100%over

5 over · 0 under

Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%

Last 1010 games

80%over

8 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%

Last 2019 games

58%over

11 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%

Season19 games

58%over

11 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	84%	16/19
1.5Current	58%	11/19
	16%	3/19
	5%	1/19
	0%	0/19

Last 19 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home70%7/10Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days61%11/18Medium

Last matchup — vs LAR

Jan 18, 2026

15thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

LAR allows 1.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Caleb Williams has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 58% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 15th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.