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Tennessee TitansCam Ward
#1 · QB · 6' 2" · 219 lb · 18 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 18 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 191.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCam Ward isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The second-year QB couldn't get much going through the air against Philly's stingy secondary, but Ward accounted for both his team's touchdowns with one-yard scores in the first and third quarters -- matching his rushing TD total from his rookie campaign. Ward doesn't appear to be taking a step forward as a passer, however, and through two weeks he has just 323 passing yards, a 61.5 percent completion rate and one touchdown, although he has avoided committing any turnovers so far in 2026. Ward will look to be a little sharper through the air in a Week 3 road tilt against the Giants.
Verdict
vs 188.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency53neutral
Projection
157.3 PASS YDS(×0.84 context)
L5 194.4 · L10 182.5 · med 176.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 140.4 · ceil 253.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 188.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 |
Situational splits
Over 188.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%9/17Medium
Next matchup — @ NYG
Sep 27, 2026
10thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYG allows 251.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cam Ward has gone over 188.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (251.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 53.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.