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Tennessee TitansCam Ward
#1 · QB · 6' 2" · 219 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 185.4 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCam Ward isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ward threw two go-ahead touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, connecting with Chimere Dike for an 11-yard score before finding Wan'Dale Robinson for a 15-yard TD. Those two touchdown passes came after a streak of five Tony Pollard rushing touchdowns without a Ward passing TD over the previous seven quarters. Pollard's second rushing touchdown Sunday was followed up by a two-point conversion from Ward on the ground, and Ward threw a two-point conversion to Gunnar Helm after the touchdown pass to Robinson to take a 36-29 lead. The Bengals answered with a game-tying touchdown, and Cincinnati scored to begin overtime. Tennessee's ensuing drive in OT resulted in a turnover on downs, but the bonus possession helped Ward reach 300 passing yards in a game for the first time in his career. Ward's first multi-touchdown passing performance of the season improves his TD:INT to 6:5 heading into a Week 10 home game against the Jaguars following Tennessee's Week 9 bye.
Verdict
vs 181.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency50neutral
Projection
204.9 PASS YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 195.8 · L10 185.4 · med 181.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 152.0 · ceil 206.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 181.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 181.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Last matchup — @ CIN
Nov 1, 2026
6thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CIN allows 261.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Cam Ward has gone over 181.5 PASS YDS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 6th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (261.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 55.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.