Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward Passing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Cam Ward has gone over 0.5 PASS TD in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Miami
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 0.9 PASS TD · our line

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OutCam Ward isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll emphasized Ward's fuller understanding of the game from the perspective of the offensive line and receivers, lending credence to the 2025 first-rounder's increased confidence. Ward started all 17 games as a rookie and showed late-season improvement, then returned healthy for OTAs after a right shoulder injury in the 2025 finale. His first training-camp practice offered another encouraging sign, as he completed 11 of 16 passes with two touchdowns, per Wyatt. Ward's fantasy appeal is still tied to the overall growth of Tennessee's offense, as well as his chemistry with new top wideouts Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson, but signals have been positive ahead of the 2026 regular season.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line71supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.4 PASS TD(×0.97 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

80%over

8 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%

Last 2016 games

69%over

11 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 44%–86%

Season16 games

69%over

11 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 44%–86%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	69%	11/16
	25%	4/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home78%7/9Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days73%11/15Medium

With a teammate out

How this PASS TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Michael Carter out-0.7 PASS TD when he sits

Without (6g)

0.5 PASS TD

50% over 0.5

With (10g)

1.2 PASS TD

80% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs NO

Dec 28, 2025

14thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

NO allows 1.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Cam Ward has gone over 0.5 PASS TD 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 69% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.