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Minnesota VikingsCarson Wentz
#11 · QB · 6' 5" · 237 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Dakota State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 213.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCarson Wentz isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Wentz performed admirably across nearly two full games in relief of Murray, who sustained the concussion midway through the first quarter of the season opener against the Packers. After completing 12 of 19 passes for 133 yards and three touchdowns in the Vikings' come-from-behind 39-22 win over Green Bay, Wentz started Week 2 against the Bears and played turnover-free football in rainy and windy conditions en route to leading Minnesota to a 9-3 win. While Murray will reclaim the starting job now that he's out of the protocol, Wentz's performance over the past two weeks firmly solidifies him ahead of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy on the depth chart.
Verdict
vs 172.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
181.6 PASS YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 193.8 · L10 213.1 · med 173.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 143.2 · ceil 297.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 172.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 172.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ TB
Sep 27, 2026
11thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TB allows 246.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Carson Wentz has gone over 172.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 11th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (246.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 81.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.