Minnesota Vikings

Carson Wentz Passing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Carson Wentz has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Dakota State
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.3 PASS TD · our line

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OutCarson Wentz isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wentz performed admirably across nearly two full games in relief of Murray, who sustained the concussion midway through the first quarter of the season opener against the Packers. After completing 12 of 19 passes for 133 yards and three touchdowns in the Vikings' come-from-behind 39-22 win over Green Bay, Wentz started Week 2 against the Bears and played turnover-free football in rainy and windy conditions en route to leading Minnesota to a 9-3 win. While Murray will reclaim the starting job now that he's out of the protocol, Wentz's performance over the past two weeks firmly solidifies him ahead of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy on the depth chart.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 PASS TD(×0.93 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 107 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Last 207 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Season7 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	71%	5/7
1.5Current	43%	3/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

Next matchup — @ TB

Sep 27, 2026

14thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

TB allows 1.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Carson Wentz has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.