Chicago Bears

Case Keenum Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Case Keenum has gone over 13.5 FS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Houston
Experience: 15 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.1 FS · our line

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OutCase Keenum isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

It seems Keenum and Bagent would each have a 50-50 shot at starting Sunday if Williams isn't cleared to play, with head coach Ben Johnson saying Friday "we have two guys that are equally qualified" in reference to Keenum and Bagent. Keenum was the backup for each of the Bears' last two games, though he did take over in the fourth quarter of Chicago's Week 5 loss to Green Bay after Bagent threw his second pick of the game in the third quarter. Keenum was the starter and led the Bears to a Week 3 victory over the Eagles, when he completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while adding six yards and a score on four carries.

Verdict

vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

13.6 FS(×1.08 context)

L5 13.1 · L10 13.1 · med 13.1

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 6.3 · ceil 19.9

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
13.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2

Last 2 games — FS per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ ATL

Oct 18, 2026

10thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

ATL allows 19.2 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Case Keenum has gone over 13.5 FS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most FS of 32 teams (19.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 11.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.