Chicago Bears

Case Keenum Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Case Keenum has gone over 4.5 RUSH YDS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Houston
Experience: 15 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 5.0 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutCase Keenum isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

It seems Keenum and Bagent would each have a 50-50 shot at starting Sunday if Williams isn't cleared to play, with head coach Ben Johnson saying Friday "we have two guys that are equally qualified" in reference to Keenum and Bagent. Keenum was the backup for each of the Bears' last two games, though he did take over in the fourth quarter of Chicago's Week 5 loss to Green Bay after Bagent threw his second pick of the game in the third quarter. Keenum was the starter and led the Bears to a Week 3 victory over the Eagles, when he completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while adding six yards and a score on four carries.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line78supports it

Consistency67supports it

Projection

5.3 RUSH YDS(×1.08 context)

L5 5.0 · L10 5.0 · med 5.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.4 · ceil 5.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
4.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ ATL

Oct 18, 2026

31stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

ATL allows 5.6 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Case Keenum has gone over 4.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (5.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.