Carolina Panthers

Casey Washington Receptions

Stats updated: Oct 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Casey Washington has gone over 1.5 REC in 1 of his last 4 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Illinois
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.3 REC · our line

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OutCasey Washington isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With fellow wide receiver Dan Chisena (undisclosed) being placed on injured reserve, Washington will get his chance to contend for a depth role with the 2026 Panthers. The 25-year-old was waived by the Falcons in mid-June, having produced seven receptions for 108 yards over 15 career regular-season games.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

1.2 REC(×1.04 context)

L5 1.3 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.6 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 104 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 204 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Season4 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	3/4
1.5Current	25%	1/4
	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/3Low

Next matchup — @ ARI

Aug 7, 2026

10thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

ARI allows 3.6 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 52 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 4 games, Casey Washington has gone over 1.5 REC 1 of 4 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 10th-most REC of 32 teams (3.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.