Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

CeeDee Lamb has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutCeeDee Lamb isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Lamb led the Cowboys in receptions and receiving yards by a wide margin, and he also set the pace in targets with one more than George Pickens. Lamb repeatedly victimized the Commanders' secondary throughout the afternoon, and his touchdowns came from three and 24 yards out in the first and fourth quarters, respectively. The 2020 first-round pick has cobbled together a 13-197-3 line over his first two games, and he'll continue to play a pivotal role in a Week 3 home matchup against the Ravens next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×1.00 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2014 games

36%over

5 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%

Season14 games

36%over

5 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	36%	5/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home38%3/8Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%5/13Low

Next matchup — vs BAL

Sep 27, 2026

20thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

BAL allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, CeeDee Lamb has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 36% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.