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Dallas CowboysCeeDee Lamb Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
CeeDee Lamb has gone over 9.5 TGT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 9.5 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCeeDee Lamb isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lamb led the Cowboys in receptions and receiving yards by a wide margin, and he also set the pace in targets with one more than George Pickens. Lamb repeatedly victimized the Commanders' secondary throughout the afternoon, and his touchdowns came from three and 24 yards out in the first and fourth quarters, respectively. The 2020 first-round pick has cobbled together a 13-197-3 line over his first two games, and he'll continue to play a pivotal role in a Week 3 home matchup against the Ravens next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 9.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency69supports it
Projection
9.1 TGT(×1.00 context)
L5 8.8 · L10 9.1 · med 9.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 8.0 · ceil 11.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 14% | 2/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
8thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
BAL allows 6.6 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, CeeDee Lamb has gone over 9.5 TGT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More CeeDee Lamb research
CeeDee Lamb — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Lamb Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Lamb Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Lamb Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.