Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

CeeDee Lamb has gone over 9.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 9.7 TGT · our line

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OutCeeDee Lamb isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

This comes as no surprise considering Lamb is part of a one-two punch at wide receiver for Dallas along with George Pickens. After Lamb agreed to restructure his contract ahead of the opening of free agency in March, Pickens signed the franchise tag in April, ensuring the duo will be together for a second campaign in 2026. Lamb took a step back last year, missing three games overall due to injury and finishing with a 75-1,077-3 line on 117 targets in 14 regular-season contests, while Pickens blossomed for 93-1,429-9 on 137 targets in 17 outings. Both Lamb and Pickens can expect regular attention from QB Dak Prescott in the upcoming season.

Verdict

vs 9.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it

Projection vs line40argues against it

Consistency68supports it

Projection

8.5 TGT(×0.91 context)

L5 8.8 · L10 9.2 · med 9.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 8.0 · ceil 11.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Season12 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	12/12
	83%	10/12
	67%	8/12
9.5Current	58%	7/12
	33%	4/12
	17%	2/12
	8%	1/12

Last 12 games — TGT per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days55%6/11Low

Last matchup — @ WSH

Dec 25, 2025

7thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

WSH allows 5.9 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 53 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, CeeDee Lamb has gone over 9.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 58% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.