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Tampa Bay BuccaneersChris Godwin Jr.
#14 · WR · 6' 1" · 209 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 43.6 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChris Godwin Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Godwin's three targets were seventh on the team and "good" for just an 8.8 percent share on a day Baker Mayfield attempted 34 passes. However, the veteran wide receiver's 37 routes were just one fewer than Emeka Egbuka for the team lead. Godwin has suffered several lower-body injuries to this point in his career, it's becoming a concern that he may just not have it anymore at 30.5 years old. Through two games, he has seven catches for 86 scoreless yards and 15 rushing yards.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
46.6 REC YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 50.6 · L10 43.6 · med 30.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 23.6 · ceil 64.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Last 209 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Season9 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 43.5Current | 33% | 3/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIN allows 62.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Chris Godwin Jr. has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 3 of 9 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (62.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 29.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.