Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin Jr. Targets

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chris Godwin Jr. has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 6.3 TGT · our line

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OutChris Godwin Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

During the 2025 regular season, Godwin -- who was limited to seven contests in 2024 -- put up a 33-360-2 line on 51 targets in nine games. The 30-year-old reportedly was a standout during OTAs and heads into training camp with no lingering injury concerns, which sets him up to maintain a key role in a Tampa Bay WR corps that no longer includes Mike Evans, who is now a member of the 49ers. In his continued role out of the slot, Godwin should provide fantasy lineup utility in 2026, particularly in PPR formats, while Egbuka -- a 2025 first-rounder who can line up all along the formation -- brings intriguing upside to the table in his second pro season, which is reflected in his current average draft position. Meanwhile, Jalen McMillan -- who will look to rebound from a 2025 campaign that was abbreviated by a neck injury -- is a candidate to see his share of targets on the outside, with Ted Hurst and Tez Johnson also in the mix to carve out roles in the passing game.

Verdict

vs 5.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line60neutral

Consistency45neutral

Projection

6.6 TGT(×1.02 context)

L5 6.4 · L10 6.3 · med 5.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 4.4 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	100%	8/8
	75%	6/8
5.5Current	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8
	13%	1/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Last matchup — @ MIA

Dec 28, 2025

29thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

MIA allows 4.9 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 54 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Chris Godwin Jr. has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.