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Tampa Bay BuccaneersChris Godwin Jr. Targets
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Chris Godwin Jr. has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.0 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChris Godwin Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Godwin's 32 routes on Baker Mayfield's 36 dropbacks were second on the team behind Emeka Egbuka, who ran 33 routes, and Godwin was lined up in the slot 54.3 percent of the time, while Egbuka and Ted Hurst mainly played on the outside. Godwin was targeted just four times, however, finishing fourth on the team. Now 30 years old with multiple serious lower-body injuries in his career, it's fair to wonder how much explosiveness Godwin has left. He's a low-floor WR3/4 in fantasy ahead of next Sunday's date with the Browns.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency43neutral
Projection
6.5 TGT(×1.12 context)
L5 6.2 · L10 6.0 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 5.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — vs CLE
Sep 20, 2026
31stof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
CLE allows 3.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Chris Godwin Jr. has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most TGT of 32 teams (3.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Chris Godwin Jr. research
Chris Godwin Jr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Godwin Jr. Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Godwin Jr. Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Godwin Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.