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New Orleans SaintsChris Olave
#12 · WR · 6' 0" · 187 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 76.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChris Olave isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Olave inked a four-year extension worth up to $132 million with the Saints on Thursday, providing sufficient motivation for the 2022 first-rounder to get in his first full-team reps of training camp. Treatment related to a blood clot kept Olave from taking part in team drills during spring activities, but the star wideout seems to be fully healthy in advance of the 2026 regular season. Olave will look to build on the career year he logged in 2025 as he now heads into Year 2 with quarterback Tyler Shough under center.
Verdict
vs 66.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
99.5 REC YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 93.8 · L10 89.1 · med 91.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 54.0 · ceil 100.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 66.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 66.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Tyler Shough out-22.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
63.8 REC YDS
33% over 66.5
With (8g)
86.6 REC YDS
63% over 66.5
Spencer Rattler out+32.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
97.6 REC YDS
80% over 66.5
With (9g)
65.3 REC YDS
33% over 66.5
Last matchup — @ TEN
Dec 28, 2025
5thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
TEN allows 48.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 60 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chris Olave has gone over 66.5 REC YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (48.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 32.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.