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New Orleans SaintsChris Olave Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Chris Olave has gone over 15.5 FS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.2 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChris Olave isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Olave inked a four-year extension worth up to $132 million with the Saints on Thursday, providing sufficient motivation for the 2022 first-rounder to get in his first full-team reps of training camp. Treatment related to a blood clot kept Olave from taking part in team drills during spring activities, but the star wideout seems to be fully healthy in advance of the 2026 regular season. Olave will look to build on the career year he logged in 2025 as he now heads into Year 2 with quarterback Tyler Shough under center.
Verdict
vs 15.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
23.5 FS(×1.07 context)
L5 22.8 · L10 20.5 · med 18.3
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.7 · ceil 23.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Season14 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 15.5Current | 57% | 8/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days62%8/13Low
With a teammate out
How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Tyler Shough out-5.7 FS when he sits
Without (6g)
14.9 FS
33% over 15.5
With (8g)
20.6 FS
75% over 15.5
Spencer Rattler out+7.5 FS when he sits
Without (5g)
23.0 FS
80% over 15.5
With (9g)
15.5 FS
44% over 15.5
Last matchup — @ TEN
Dec 28, 2025
8thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
TEN allows 10.2 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 60 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chris Olave has gone over 15.5 FS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 57% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most FS of 32 teams (10.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Chris Olave research
Chris Olave — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Olave Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Olave Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Olave Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.