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New Orleans SaintsChris Olave
#12 · WR · 6' 0" · 187 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 93.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Chris Olave's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Illness Not Specified
An illness cost Olave the first two practices of the week, but he was able to take the field Friday and get some work in. He isn't in the clear for Sunday's matchup with the Giants just yet, but his participation alone Friday suggests it's more likely than not that he'll be available.
Verdict
vs 92.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 10/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency37argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
122.6 REC YDS(×1.15 context)
L5 122.0 · L10 106.4 · med 105.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 59.0 · ceil 116.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 92.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 92.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — @ NYG
Oct 18, 2026
16thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NYG allows 44.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chris Olave has gone over 92.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 35.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 79.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+22.3%
Our model puts the over at 72.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (79 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.