Jacksonville Jaguars

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kentucky
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.5 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutChris Rodriguez Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bhayshul Tuten got the start and out-snapped Rodriguez by a 28-23 margin and out-carried him 15 to six in one of the friendliest rushing environments the Jaguars will see all season after Jacksonville jumped out to a 31-0 lead early in the third quarter. The lack of volume and production from Rodriguez in this spot is concerning for his fantasy viability moving forward, as Tuten seemed to have the clear upper hand and averaged 4.4 yards per carry to Rodriguez's 3.8 mark. Tuten also caught a 22-yard pass, while Rodriguez didn't see a target. It was clear against Cleveland that Tuten is the preferred fantasy option in this backfield.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)97supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 RUSH TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	5/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Next matchup — vs NE

Sep 27, 2026

19thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

NE allows 0.0 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Chris Rodriguez Jr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.