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New Orleans SaintsCJ Donaldson
#43 · RB · 6' 1" · 230 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Oct 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 18.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm CJ Donaldson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Shoulder Not Specified
After being limited Wednesday, Donaldson's downgrade to DNP puts him in jeopardy of missing Week 9 against the Browns. With Travis Etienne (hamstring) also looking unlikely to play, the Saints could be rolling with Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller and Audric Estime out of the backfield.
Verdict
vs 15.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
22.0 RUSH YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 18.5 · L10 18.5 · med 15.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 9.4 · ceil 26.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 15.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — vs CLE
Nov 8, 2026
2ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CLE allows 65.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 4 games, CJ Donaldson has gone over 15.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (65.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.