New Orleans Saints

CJ Donaldson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

CJ Donaldson has gone over 2.5 FS in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 2.6 FS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm CJ Donaldson's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Shoulder Not Specified

Donaldson picked up the injury during the first quarter and has been taken to the locker room to undergo more tests on his shoulder injury. Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller would be the remaining healthy running backs on the Saints active roster for the rest of Sunday's game if Donaldson is not cleared to return.

Verdict

vs 2.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 4/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency25argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

2.6 FS(×1.02 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 2.6 · med 2.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.6 · ceil 3.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	4/4
	75%	3/4
2.5Current	50%	2/4
	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — FS per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Next matchup — vs CLE

Nov 8, 2026

11thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

CLE allows 11.6 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 4 games, CJ Donaldson has gone over 2.5 FS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most FS of 32 teams (11.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.