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Chicago BearsCole Kmet
#85 · TE · 6' 6" · 257 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 24.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCole Kmet isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
While Kmet played 51 of 74 offensive snaps in Week 2, he ran just 13 pass routes and was asked to block 37 times. Kmet plays a bunch in a Chicago offense that likes to use multiple tight ends, but his route participation isn't strong enough to warrant serious fantasy consideration if Colston Loveland is healthy.
Verdict
vs 28.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
21.5 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 19.6 · L10 26.3 · med 29.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.0 · ceil 36.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 28.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 29, 2026
30thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
PHI allows 10.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cole Kmet has gone over 28.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 30th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (10.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 15.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.