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Chicago BearsCole Kmet Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Cole Kmet has gone over 1.5 REC in 9 of his last 10 decided games (90%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 2.0 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCole Kmet isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
While Kmet played 51 of 74 offensive snaps in Week 2, he ran just 13 pass routes and was asked to block 37 times. Kmet plays a bunch in a Chicago offense that likes to use multiple tight ends, but his route participation isn't strong enough to warrant serious fantasy consideration if Colston Loveland is healthy.
Verdict
vs 1.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
1.8 REC(×0.90 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 2.3 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
90%over
9 over · 1 under
Medium confidence95% CI 60%–98%Last 2016 games
69%over
11 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–86%Season16 games
69%over
11 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–86%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 15/16 | ||
| 1.5Current | 69% | 11/16 | |
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 6% | 1/16 | ||
| 6% | 1/16 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away78%7/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days73%11/15Medium
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 29, 2026
28thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
PHI allows 1.5 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cole Kmet has gone over 1.5 REC 9 of 10 decided times (90%) — versus 69% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 28th-most REC of 32 teams (1.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.
More Cole Kmet research
Cole Kmet — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kmet Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kmet Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kmet Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.