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Chicago BearsColston Loveland
#84 · TE · 6' 6" · 241 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 66.6 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 56.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 34% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line34argues against it
Consistency9argues against it
Projection
82.5 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 81.6 · L10 69.5 · med 59.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 30.0 · ceil 94.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 56.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 56.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs LAR
Jan 18, 2026
20thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LAR allows 26.1 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Colston Loveland has gone over 56.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 45% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 20th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (26.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 36.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.