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Chicago BearsColston Loveland Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Colston Loveland has gone over 7.5 REC in 0 of his last 6 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Linepays more
Receptions · season avg 5.3 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutColston Loveland isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Loveland was quiet for most of the night but got free for a 38-yard catch in the final minute to set up Cairo Santos' game-winning 38-yard field goal on the game's final play. The 2025 first-round pick has recorded at least 54 receiving yards in five of the past six games, having bounced back from a slow start to his sophomore season during which Loveland compiled just 34 yards through three games. Loveland will try to keep building momentum in Week 11 against the Saints following Chicago's Week 10 bye.
Verdict
vs 7.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 17% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line27argues against it
Consistency44neutral
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
5.8 REC(×1.02 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 5.3 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 106 games
0%over
0 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–39%Last 206 games
0%over
0 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–39%Season6 games
0%over
0 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–39%Situational splits
Over 7.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/5Medium
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
27thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
TB allows 2.1 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Colston Loveland has gone over 7.5 REC 0 of 6 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 5.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 46.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 53.7%
Best Over
DraftKings+111
-2.3% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-130
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-29.6%
Our model puts the over at 16.7% vs the market's no-vig 46.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.
More Colston Loveland research
Colston Loveland — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Loveland Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Loveland Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Loveland Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.