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Denver BroncosCourtland Sutton
#14 · WR · 6' 4" · 216 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 65.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCourtland Sutton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sutton saw Jaylen Waddle spearhead the Broncos' air attack with an eight-catch, 138-yard day on 10 targets, while the former posted his second straight underwhelming line to open the season. Sutton has seen a modest nine targets over his first two games, and it remains to be seen if Waddle is in the early stages of taking over the No. 1 role in the team's passing attack. Sutton will look to make more of an impact in a Week 3 home showdown against the Rams next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 62.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
49.1 REC YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 41.4 · L10 53.3 · med 56.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 38.0 · ceil 89.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 62.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 62.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 37.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Courtland Sutton has gone over 62.5 REC YDS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 47% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 39.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-107
-3.3% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-9.5%
Our model puts the over at 40.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (39.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.