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Denver BroncosCourtland Sutton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Courtland Sutton has gone over 12.5 FS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 14.1 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCourtland Sutton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sutton saw Jaylen Waddle spearhead the Broncos' air attack with an eight-catch, 138-yard day on 10 targets, while the former posted his second straight underwhelming line to open the season. Sutton has seen a modest nine targets over his first two games, and it remains to be seen if Waddle is in the early stages of taking over the No. 1 role in the team's passing attack. Sutton will look to make more of an impact in a Week 3 home showdown against the Rams next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 12.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
11.5 FS(×1.02 context)
L5 10.3 · L10 12.5 · med 10.3
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.8 · ceil 19.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 12.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
15thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 10.1 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Courtland Sutton has gone over 12.5 FS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most FS of 32 teams (10.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Courtland Sutton research
Courtland Sutton — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Sutton Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Sutton Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Sutton Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.