Houston Texans

Dalton Schultz Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dalton Schultz has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Stanford
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutDalton Schultz isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

That said, following the team's mandatory minicamp earlier this month, Koch suggests that at this stage a "fair order" after Schultz could go as follows: Foster Moreau, Brevin Jordan (knee) and Marlin Klein (hamstring). During the 2025 regular season, Schultz set career highs in catches (82) and targets (106) en route to logging 777 receiving yards and three TDs in 17 games. As a dependable chain-mover in Houston's offense for QB C.J. Stroud, Schultz -- who has played a full slate in each of the last two years -- will remain on the fantasy lineup radar in 2026.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 84% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line84supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

18%over

3 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 6%–41%

Season17 games

18%over

3 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 6%–41%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	18%	3/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home38%3/8Low

Away0%0/9Medium

Days since last game

3+ days19%3/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

C.J. Stroud out+0.2 REC TD when he sits

Without (3g)

0.3 REC TD

33% over 0.5

With (14g)

0.1 REC TD

14% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ PIT

Jan 13, 2026

9thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

PIT allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Dalton Schultz has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 18% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 9th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 18%.