Pittsburgh Steelers

Darnell Washington Targets

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Darnell Washington has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.5 TGT · our line

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OutDarnell Washington isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Since Pittsburgh selected him in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Washington has been used regularly in an offense that trots out multiple tight ends on most offensive snaps, ranging from 497 to 543 plays per season. He set or matched career highs across the board in 2025 with a 31-364-1 line on 43 targets across 16 regular-season games, and with Jonnu Smith and Connor Heyward exiting as free agents this offseason, Washington now has only Pat Freiermuth as notable competition for TE reps for the upcoming campaign.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency68supports it

Projection

4.5 TGT(×1.02 context)

L5 4.6 · L10 4.5 · med 4.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	100%	8/8
	88%	7/8
4.5Current	50%	4/8
	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — @ DET

Dec 21, 2025

17thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

DET allows 3.5 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Darnell Washington has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 17th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.