San Francisco 49ers

Demarcus Robinson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Demarcus Robinson has gone over 5.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.4 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutDemarcus Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Ankle Sprain
Est. return:: Oct 11, 2026

Shanahan noted that Robinson will most likely be placed on injured reserve, though the 49ers haven't finalized any decisions since the team can bring back only eight players from IR and already has a lengthy injury list two games into the season. Robinson had been expected to serve as a depth receiver for the 49ers, but injuries to Ricky Pearsall (knee), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle) and Christian Kirk (calf) had opened up more playing time for the 32-year-old than anticipated through the first two weeks of the season. He produced a 5-84-1 line on six targets between wins over Rams and Dolphins to begin the campaign.

Verdict

vs 5.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it

Projection vs line78supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

10.8 FS(×1.19 context)

L5 10.6 · L10 8.0 · med 6.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 3.8 · ceil 8.9

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2013 games

62%over

8 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%

Season13 games

62%over

8 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%

Last 13 games — FS per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away71%5/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%8/12Low

Next matchup — vs ARI

Sep 27, 2026

5thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

ARI allows 13.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Demarcus Robinson has gone over 5.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most FS of 32 teams (13.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.