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San Francisco 49ersDemarcus Robinson Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Demarcus Robinson has gone over 2.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 3.4 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDemarcus Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Ankle Sprain
- Est. return:
- Oct 11, 2026
Shanahan noted that Robinson will most likely be placed on injured reserve, though the 49ers haven't finalized any decisions since the team can only bring back eight players from IR and already has a lengthy injury list two games into the season. Robinson had been expected to serve as a depth receiver for the 49ers, but injuries to Ricky Pearsall (knee), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle) and Christian Kirk (calf) had opened up more playing time for the 32-year-old than anticipated through the first two weeks of the season. He produced a 5-84-1 receiving line on six targets between wins over Rams and Dolphins to begin the campaign.
Verdict
vs 2.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
4.1 TGT(×1.19 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 3.2 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Season13 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 2.5Current | 62% | 8/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%8/12Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Sep 27, 2026
11thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
ARI allows 6.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Demarcus Robinson has gone over 2.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 11th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.
More Demarcus Robinson research
Demarcus Robinson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Robinson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Robinson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Robinson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.