New England Patriots

DeMario Douglas Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

DeMario Douglas has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Liberty
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutDeMario Douglas isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The "most common grouping" Monday, according to Callahan, involved A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs out wide with Douglas in the slot. Kayshon Boutte mixed in at X receiver, and Brown moved around the formation. Right now, it sounds like the Patriots like Brown as the X, Doubs at the Z spot and Douglas working the middle of the field out of the slot. That leaves Mack Hollins, Efton Chism and Kyle Williams competing for sub-package snaps and rotational roles. Douglas played just 26.3 percent of the offensive snaps last regular season, but with Stefon Diggs out of the picture and Brown more of an outside prototype, Douglas could see his playing time come back up in 2026.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line78supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2015 games

27%over

4 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–52%

Season15 games

27%over

4 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–52%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	27%	4/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%3/9Low

Away17%1/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days21%3/14Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rhamondre Stevenson out

Without (3g)

0.3 REC TD

33% over 0.5

With (12g)

0.3 REC TD

25% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs SEA

Feb 8, 2026

22ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, DeMario Douglas has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 27% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 27%.