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New England PatriotsDeMario Douglas Targets
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
DeMario Douglas has gone over 2.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 3.6 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDeMario Douglas isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Douglas finished tied with Rhamondre Stevenson for the team lead in receptions while also setting the pace in targets for the Patriots on the night. The speedy fourth-year pro's elevated role seemed to be largely the byproduct of A.J. Brown's exit from the game on the first possession of the second half due to an ankle injury, which underscores the fact Douglas' week-to-week production is likely to remain volatile over the course of the season. However, if Brown, who Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald reports left the locker room wearing a walking boot Wednesday, misses any time, Douglas would be in line for additional snaps and targets.
Verdict
vs 2.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 80% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)93supports it
Projection vs line80supports it
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
4.9 TGT(×1.15 context)
L5 4.2 · L10 3.3 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
67%over
10 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–85%Season15 games
67%over
10 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–85%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 2.5Current | 67% | 10/15 | |
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days64%9/14Medium
Next matchup — vs PIT
Sep 20, 2026
25thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
PIT allows 4.5 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, DeMario Douglas has gone over 2.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 67% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More DeMario Douglas research
DeMario Douglas — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Douglas Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Douglas Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Douglas Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.