Loading…
New England PatriotsDeMario Douglas Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
DeMario Douglas has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 5.0 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDeMario Douglas isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Most of his production came on a nifty 48-yard catch-and-run in the fourth quarter, as Douglas took a strike from Drake Maye along the sideline but then curled back toward the middle of the field and dashed the remaining 30 yards to the end zone while out-racing four Miami defenders. It was the fourth touchdown of the season for the fourth-year wideout, a new career high, and Douglas will take a 26-332-4 line on 37 targets through eight games into a Week 9 tilt against the Packers.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency41neutral
Matchup100supports it
Projection
5.0 TGT(×1.06 context)
L5 4.6 · L10 5.0 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.2 · ceil 6.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 4.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
4thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
GB allows 6.5 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, DeMario Douglas has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.5 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More DeMario Douglas research
DeMario Douglas — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Douglas Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Douglas Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Douglas Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.