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Philadelphia EaglesDeVonta Smith
#6 · WR · 6' 0" · 170 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 68.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDeVonta Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The veteran wideout saw more than twice as many targets as any other Eagle, with Smith's biggest reception coming just before halftime on a 22-yard TD toss from Jalen Hurts. Smith is looking the part of Philly's new WR1 following the offseason departure of A.J. Brown, compiling a 13-170-1 line on 19 targets through two games. He'll look to build on those numbers in a Week 3 road trip to Chicago.
Verdict
vs 56.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency1argues against it
Projection
72.9 REC YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 61.4 · L10 55.8 · med 50.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.0 · ceil 89.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 56.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 56.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — @ CHI
Sep 29, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 57.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, DeVonta Smith has gone over 56.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (57.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 40.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 64.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-110
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+8.7%
Our model puts the over at 58.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (64.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.