
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
DeVonta Smith has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
Smith made a big 31-yard catch on a beautiful third-down throw from Jalen Hurts late in the third quarter to help set up a Philadelphia field goal. Beyond that reception, the veteran wideout was mostly held in check, and he finished behind both tight end Dallas Goedert (77 yards) and fellow WR Dontayvion Wicks (73 yards) for the team lead in that category. Smith enters 2026 as the Eagles' top wideout following the offseason departure of A.J. Brown (ankle), but that may not necessarily lead to a heavy increase in production, as Philadelphia has a variety of offensive weapons and Hurts could look to spread the ball around more -- in fact, his 14 completions Sunday went to six different pass catchers, none of which had more than four receptions. Smith and the Eagles will be heavily favored in a Week 2 tilt against Tennessee next Sunday.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 27% | 4/15 | |
| 0% | 0/15 | ||
| 0% | 0/15 | ||
| 0% | 0/15 |
Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
TEN allows 0.0 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralOver his last 10 games, DeVonta Smith has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 27% across the full season. TEN has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 27%.
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.