Loading…
Indianapolis ColtsDJ Giddens
#21 · RB · 6' 0" · 212 lb · 4 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 3 of these 4 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Kansas State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 34.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDJ Giddens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Giddens entered Sunday having not logged a snap this season, but he got an opportunity in the blowout loss and made the most of it, ripping off a pair of 12-yard runs on the way to a team-leading 43 rushing yards. However, it must be noted that he didn't enter until the game was far out of reach in the fourth quarter, so all of his production came in garbage time. Still, it was a meaningful performance by Giddens in the context of Indianapolis fielding trade offers for star RB Jonathan Taylor amidst a lost season. Should Taylor indeed be dealt, Giddens would immediately take on a more prominent role in the Colts backfield along with seventh-round rookie Seth McGowan.
Verdict
vs 35.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency58neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
33.7 RUSH YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 34.0 · L10 34.0 · med 35.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 26.8 · ceil 41.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 35.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DAL allows 45.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, DJ Giddens has gone over 35.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (45.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.