Indianapolis Colts

DJ Giddens Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

DJ Giddens has gone over 0.5 TGT in 1 of his last 3 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kansas State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 0.3 TGT · our line

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OutDJ Giddens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Giddens is no threat to Taylor's status as the Colts' top back, but the 2025 fifth-rounder is competing with Seth McGowan for the No. 2 role. With that in mind, Boyd noted that Giddens has struggled a bit to catch the ball out of the backfield in team drills, but it's early on in training camp, and the Kansas State product has some time to clean that aspect of his game up. Whoever ends up being Taylor's top backup will hold minimal fantasy lineup appeal as long as he's healthy but would be a must-add should Taylor miss time for any reason.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line71supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 TGT

L5 0.3 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 103 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 203 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Season3 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Last matchup — @ HOU

Jan 4, 2026

10thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

HOU allows 2.8 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 3 games, DJ Giddens has gone over 0.5 TGT 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.