Indianapolis Colts

DJ Giddens Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

DJ Giddens has gone over 0.5 TGT in 1 of his last 4 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kansas State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 0.3 TGT · our line

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OutDJ Giddens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Giddens entered Sunday having not logged a snap this season, but he got an opportunity in the blowout loss and made the most of it, ripping off a pair of 12-yard runs on the way to a team-leading 43 rushing yards. However, it must be noted that he didn't enter until the game was far out of reach in the fourth quarter, so all of his production came in garbage time. Still, it was a meaningful performance by Giddens in the context of Indianapolis fielding trade offers for star RB Jonathan Taylor amidst a lost season. Should Taylor indeed be dealt, Giddens would immediately take on a more prominent role in the Colts backfield along with seventh-round rookie Seth McGowan.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 80% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line80supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

0.2 TGT(×0.93 context)

L5 0.3 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 54 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 104 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 204 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Season4 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%1/3Low

Next matchup — vs DAL

Nov 8, 2026

27thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

DAL allows 2.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 4 games, DJ Giddens has gone over 0.5 TGT 1 of 4 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.