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Buffalo BillsDJ Moore
#2 · WR · 6' 0" · 213 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 48.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDJ Moore isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Moore was acquired by the Bills from Chicago in March for a second-round pick, and the 29-year-old veteran steps into a new wide receiver room alongside Khalil Shakir to provide Allen a true proven No. 1 receiver for the first time since Stefon Diggs' departure back in 2024. Catching passes from one of the NFL's premier quarterbacks will aid Moore as he looks to bounce back from a down 2025 season with the Bears, in which he totaled a career-worst 50-682-6 receiving line despite suiting up for all 17 regular-season games. Moore faces less competition for targets in Buffalo, as behind Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid, the likes of Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman and Skyler Bell fill out the team's receiver corps. If Moore can demonstrate that he hasn't lost a step at age 29, he'll be in position to bounce back in 2026 even if his best days are behind him.
Verdict
vs 52.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency10argues against it
Projection
54.9 REC YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 57.8 · L10 51.5 · med 64.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 21.0 · ceil 69.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Season16 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 52.5Current | 44% | 7/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 52.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Josh Allen out-18.1 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
39.3 REC YDS
25% over 52.5
With (8g)
57.4 REC YDS
63% over 52.5
Khalil Shakir out-18.1 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
39.3 REC YDS
25% over 52.5
With (8g)
57.4 REC YDS
63% over 52.5
Last matchup — vs LAR
Jan 18, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 48.1 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, DJ Moore has gone over 52.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 44% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (48.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.