Buffalo Bills

DJ Moore Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

DJ Moore has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Maryland
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.5 REC TD · our line

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OutDJ Moore isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Moore was acquired by the Bills from Chicago in March for a second-round pick, and the 29-year-old veteran steps into a new wide receiver room alongside Khalil Shakir to provide Allen a true proven No. 1 receiver for the first time since Stefon Diggs' departure back in 2024. Catching passes from one of the NFL's premier quarterbacks will aid Moore as he looks to bounce back from a down 2025 season with the Bears, in which he totaled a career-worst 50-682-6 receiving line despite suiting up for all 17 regular-season games. Moore faces less competition for targets in Buffalo, as behind Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid, the likes of Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman and Skyler Bell fill out the team's receiver corps. If Moore can demonstrate that he hasn't lost a step at age 29, he'll be in position to bounce back in 2026 even if his best days are behind him.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 REC TD(×1.09 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 0.7 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

38%over

6 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%

Season16 games

38%over

6 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	38%	6/16
	13%	2/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%6/9Low

Away0%0/7Medium

Days since last game

3+ days40%6/15Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Josh Allen out

Without (8g)

0.5 REC TD

38% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.5 REC TD

38% over 0.5

Khalil Shakir out

Without (8g)

0.5 REC TD

38% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.5 REC TD

38% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs LAR

Jan 18, 2026

6thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

LAR allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, DJ Moore has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 38% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.