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New England PatriotsDrake Maye
#10 · QB · 6' 4" · 225 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 18 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 246.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDrake Maye isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Maye didn't get much going through the air and was picked off on the first possession of the second half, but the Patriots rode their defense and running game to a comfortable win. Romeo Doubs stepped up at wide receiver with 96 of Maye's 208 yards through the air in the absence of A.J. Brown (ankle), who is expected to miss six weeks due to an ankle injury sustained in the Week 1 loss to Seattle. Maye is averaging just 193 passing yards and takes a 1:4 TD:INT into a Week 3 road game against the Jaguars.
Verdict
vs 267.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency57neutral
Projection
230.4 PASS YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 201.2 · L10 227.0 · med 223.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 186.2 · ceil 282.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 267.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 42% | 8/19 | ||
| 42% | 8/19 | ||
| 37% | 7/19 |
Situational splits
Over 267.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%9/18Medium
Next matchup — @ JAX
Sep 27, 2026
18thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
JAX allows 205.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Drake Maye has gone over 267.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 18th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (205.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 63.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 229.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-5.7%
Our model puts the over at 44.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (230.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.