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New England PatriotsDrake Maye Completions
Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Drake Maye has gone over 19.5 CMP in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 20.5 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDrake Maye isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Maye enjoyed a breakout sophomore season while facing a historically easy regular-season schedule, but the 2024 first-round pick came crashing back down to earth in the playoffs. The Patriots made the Super Bowl despite Maye posting the worst playoff performance of all time by expected points added, which finally caught up to New England in a 29-13 Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks. Maye will get a chance to try to avenge that loss to Seattle in the first game of the 2026 regular season Sept. 9, and he'll have a new top target for that rematch in Brown, with whom Maye has started to build a rapport as training camp progresses.
Verdict
vs 19.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency55neutral
Projection
18.1 CMP(×0.93 context)
L5 16.8 · L10 19.4 · med 18.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.0 · ceil 25.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season20 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 15/20 | ||
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 60% | 12/20 | ||
| 19.5Current | 45% | 9/20 | |
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 30% | 6/20 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home45%5/11Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%8/19Medium
With a teammate out
How this CMP line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rhamondre Stevenson out-0.6 CMP when he sits
Without (3g)
20.0 CMP
33% over 19.5
With (17g)
20.6 CMP
47% over 19.5
A.J. Brown out
Without (14g)
20.5 CMP
43% over 19.5
With (6g)
20.5 CMP
50% over 19.5
Last matchup — vs SEA
Feb 8, 2026
5thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
SEA allows 21.9 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Drake Maye has gone over 19.5 CMP 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 45% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most CMP of 32 teams (21.9 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.
More Drake Maye research
Drake Maye — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Maye Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Maye Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Maye Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.