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New England PatriotsDrake Maye Completions
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Drake Maye has gone over 19.5 CMP in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 20.2 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDrake Maye isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Maye didn't get much going through the air and was picked off on the first possession of the second half, but the Patriots rode their defense and running game to a comfortable win. Romeo Doubs stepped up at wide receiver with 96 of Maye's 208 yards through the air in the absence of A.J. Brown (ankle), who is expected to miss six weeks due to an ankle injury sustained in the Week 1 loss to Seattle. Maye is averaging just 193 passing yards and takes a 1:4 TD:INT into a Week 3 road game against the Jaguars.
Verdict
vs 19.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency57neutral
Projection
20.9 CMP(×1.04 context)
L5 18.6 · L10 19.5 · med 18.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.0 · ceil 24.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2019 games
47%over
9 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%Season19 games
47%over
9 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 14/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 19.5Current | 47% | 9/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 42% | 8/19 | ||
| 32% | 6/19 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%4/10Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%8/18Medium
Next matchup — @ JAX
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
JAX allows 16.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Drake Maye has gone over 19.5 CMP 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most CMP of 32 teams (16.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Drake Maye research
Drake Maye — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Maye Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Maye Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Maye Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.